Considering Alternatives in Judgement and Decision-Making - Professor Brett Hayes

What is this research about?

We are often faced with making judgments and decisions in situations with uncertain outcomes. For example, a new blemish on your arm could be a benign skin change or could be a sign of something more serious (e.g. cancer). This project examines how people factor these kinds of uncertain alternatives into their decisions (e.g. should I go to doctor?).

We are particularly interested in whey people often fail to consider all the relevant alternatives and what we can do improve judgment in these situations.

Publications relating to this research:

Hayes, B. K., Hawkins, G. E., & Newell, B. R. (2016). Consider the alternative: The effects of causal knowledge on representing and using alternative hypotheses in judgments under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory & Cognition. 42, 723-739.

Hawkins, G. E., Hayes, B. K., Donkin, C., Newell, B. R, Pasqualino, M., & Newell, B. (2015). A Bayesian latent mixture model analysis shows that informative samples reduce base rate neglect. Decision, 24, 306-318.

Hayes, B. K., Hawkins, G. E., Newell, B. R, Pasqualino, M., & Rehder, B. (2014). The role of causal models in multiple judgments under uncertainty. Cognition, 133, 611-620.

Griffiths, O., Hayes, B. K., Newell, B. (2012). Feature-based versus category-based induction with uncertain categories. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition, 38, 576-595

Lab:

To find out more information about this research, contact Professor Brett Hayes.